The oil market has been and is expected to continue to be very volatile. Oil refiners are exposed to a variety of political and economic trends and events, as well as natural phenomena that affect the short- and long-term supply of and demand for the products that they produce and sell.
Uncertainty continues to be focused on the development of the world economy, which is likely to have a material impact on the demand for petroleum products generally and diesel fuel in particular.
Sudden and unplanned outages at Neste Oil's production units or facilities continue to represent a short-term operational risk.
Rapid and large changes in feedstock and product prices may lead to significant inventory gains or losses, or changes in working capital, and may have a material impact on the company’s IFRS operating profit and net cash from operations.
The implementation of biofuel legislation in the EU, North America, and other key market areas may influence the speed at which the demand for these fuels develops. Over the longer term, failure to protect Neste Oil’s proprietary technology or the introduction and implementation of competing technologies may have a negative impact on the company’s results. Renewable fuels margins can be volatile in various markets due to rapidly changing feedstock and product prices, and affect the profitability of the Renewable Fuels business as a result.
Over the longer term, access to funding and rising capital costs, as well as challenges in procuring and developing new competitive and reasonably priced raw materials, may impact the company's results.
The key market drivers for Neste Oil’s financial performance are refining margins, the price differential between Russian Export Blend (REB) and Brent crude, the USD/EUR exchange rate, the price differentials between different vegetable oils, and biodiesel margins.